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March 20, 2008
Stock Watch, Part II
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With Spring Training in full swing I find myself adjusting my fantasy draft board cheat sheet frequently. Whether it is an injury, a trade, or a player
playing particular good/bad, I’m adjusting my sheet every day. Below are some players that are rising and falling.
Rising Stock
Andre Ethier/Matt Kemp
Both of these young potential stars are battling for a starting position and having very respectable spring trainings. I was watching a spring
training game and saw Ethier turn on a pitch and drive it deep, in fact he is sitting atop the MLB with 5HR this spring (1 behind Ivan Rodriguez),
while hitting .340, and also showing patience drawing 9 BB. Kemp on the other hand, has hit 2 bombs (HR), has stole 3 bases, and his hitting .310
in March. However Kemp has struck out 11 times and only walked once. Ethier is probably the front runner for the starting job, but keep an eye on
Kemp.
Mike Cameron
Last week I contemplated moving Cameron up my list, and after reading one of my colleagues columns “Familiar Places in New Places”, I have
since then moved “Cammy” onto a possible sleeper list. Now as Keith Reinfield has already said; “Cameron has been suspended for the first 25
games due to the use of banned substance”. This most likely will drop him on many draft boards, (as it had on mine). However Cameron was
brought in to Milwaukee to be the leader of the team and by the way he is playing this spring (3HR, 2SB and .367); he may be ready for a nice
season.
Michael Bourn
Previously I had Bourn listed on my “Bargain Bin” article, as a potential sleeper or someone you may get at a decent “Bargain”. However Bourn is
hitting .333 this Spring, 7 stolen bases, and surprisingly enough he has hit two HR’s. Something tells me, he’s not just on my sleeper list.
Josh Hamilton
After being traded to the Texas Rangers this off season, the former overall #1 draft pick is having a huge spring with his new team. In 36AB’s he
has 20 hits, averaging .556 at the plate, with 2 bombs and a stolen base. Playing at the launching pad in Arlington Texas, you can expect
Hamilton to have a great season with potential 30+ HR’s.
John Danks
John Danks has come out of the gate very strong in March 2008, to the tune of 8K, 2.00 ERA in 9IP. After a sub-par rookie season (5.5ERA,
109K, 6W and 13L) I think the heat is on Danks to improve or be sent down to AAA-Oklahoma where he had an impressive 72K in 70IP, albeit a
high ERA of 4.36. If he continues down the path he started this spring, he could be a viable sleeper, especially in AL only leagues. SOUND
FAMILIAR?
Well that is what I wrote last week, and Danks has continued to perform well, he is now at 14IP, 15K, while pitching 14.1 innings. Nice sleeper pick,
especially in AL only leagues.
Falling Stock
Scott Kazmir
If you already had your draft you likely saw Scott Kazmir drafted as a top tier pitcher, probably in the early rounds, which is a major bummer
considering some injury woes to the young “flame thrower”. On February 26, Kazmir reported some discomfort in his elbow during some warm-up
pitches (NOT GOOD). While it is good that the Rays have shut him down for a couple weeks, who knows how healthy Kazmir will be this season. I’
ve always been leery of Kazmir for several reasons, (he plays in the TOUGH AL East, he is only 6’/190 and has a lot of torque on his body when
he pitches) With Kazmir already low on my cheat-sheet, and with new elbow concerns, I will be hard pressed to draft him till the middle rounds.
Initial reports had him back on the mound for opening day, he is now out until at least mid-April. I’m not going anywhere near him.
Barry Zito
Well I was one of those poor, unfortunate souls that drafted Zito with high hopes, and as you well know, it didn’t pan out very well. (4.5ERA, 131K,
and a 11-13 record) Things are not looking so hot this spring, granted he is probably throwing mostly fastballs and not many of his “12-6”
curveballs. This Spring he has the highest ERA (14.92) in MLB, he hasn’t struck anyone out and has walked 10 batters. If you do draft Zito, be
sure not to spend much.
Rickie Weeks
I almost wish I wouldn’t have stumbled across this, as I have HIGH hopes for Weeks. I was thinking 20-20 for sure and possibility of a Brando
Phillips like 30-30. But you have to get on the base consistently for that to happen, and with Weeks league leading 20 strikeouts it is not likely. His
batting average was a major disappointment last year at .235, but many thought that was due to the hand/wrist injuries he had. Supposedly
healthy, this spring he is batting .125. I reluctantly drop him down a few spots on my cheat sheet.
Stay tuned to Easy Come, Easy go for more.
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March 13, 2008
Stock Watch, Part I
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With Spring Training in full swing I find myself adjusting my fantasy draft board cheat sheet frequently. Whether it is an injury, a trade, or a player
playing particular good/bad, I’m adjusting my sheet every day. Below are some players that are rising and falling.
Rising Stock
Brian Roberts
After listening to numerous rumors that the Chicago Cubs are looking to acquire Brian Roberts from the Baltimore Orioles, I have much more
interest in Roberts, and have proceeded to move him up to the fourth best 2nd baseman, just behind B.J. Upton. Roberts’s 3-year average has
been: (93R, 13HR, 62RBI, 38SB, .295BA), while playing for the bottom dwelling Baltimore Orioles. In 2005, Roberts hit 18HR, 73RBI and batted .
313, playing for the Cubs I’m thinking we’ll see similar numbers to his 2005 campaign, with an increase in stolen bases (around 40). Based on
CBSsportsline.com rankings for best hitting ballparks (Wrigley Field #2 compared to Camden Yards #6), Roberts should see an increase in Hr’s (I’
m predicting a minimum of 20)
Richie Sexson
The other night I tuned into MarinersNightly to see what the M’s had going on down in Peoria AZ, and was pleasantly surprised when they added
some interesting stats for Richie Sexson. Based on the stats below I saw a perfect opportunity to buy low or draft a player not ranked very high
that will most likely post much better numbers, take a look at “Big Sexy” numbers below:
R HR RBI BA
2007 58 21 63 .205
3-year avg 77 31 97 .248
7-year avg 85 35 105 .260
Before I saw these stats, I had Sexson very low on my cheat-sheet, thinking he may not even be an everyday starter. I’ve since then moved him
up, and will try drafting him in the late rounds as a potential comeback player.
Jair Jurrjens
Jair Jurrjens was a main piece in a trade to Atlanta from Detroit Tigers for Edgar Renteria. I originally had not given the 21 year old much of a
look, but after his sizzling start in the pre-season (9IP, 4H, 1ER, 2BB, 4K) I’m going to keep a much closer eye on him. He may not be worth
picking up just yet, (possibly late in NL only leagues) but if he continues to play well, I may pick him up in my deep mixed league, as a late round
sleeper.
Joey Gathright
Looking for a cheap source of SB’s, well Joey Gathright may be your player. Most of us know how fast he is, he just has struggled to get an
adequate amount of playing time, due to a lack of getting on base, which consequently will hurt your SB total. With Jose Guillen suspended for the
first 15 games, Gathright will have a great opportunity to show that he deserves an everyday spot. This spring he is doing just that, batting .308,
4H, 1BB he has been able to steal 6SB, second in all of baseball this spring. If he can continue this pace into the MLB season he may get an
everyday spot either at RF (pushing Guillen to DH) or a DH spot himself. At any rate, he will not cost much and could steal upwards of 50 bases.
John Danks
John Danks has come out of the gate very strong in March 2008, to the tune of 8K, 2.00 ERA in 9IP. After a sub-par rookie season (5.5ERA,
109K, 6W and 13L) I think the heat is on Danks to improve or be sent down to AAA-Oklahoma where he had an impressive 72K in 70IP, albeit a
high ERA of 4.36. If he continues down the path he started this spring, he could be a viable sleeper, especially in AL only leagues.
Falling Stock
Scott Kazmir
If you already had your draft you likely saw Scott Kazmir drafted as a top tier pitcher, probably in the early rounds, which is a major bummer
considering some injury woes to the young “flame thrower”. On February 26, Kazmir reported some discomfort in his elbow during some warm-up
pitches (NOT GOOD). While it is good that the Rays have shut him down for a couple weeks, who knows how healthy Kazmir will be this season. I’
ve always been leery of Kazmir for several reasons, (he plays in the TOUGH AL East, he is only 6’/190 and has a lot of torque on his body when
he pitches) With Kazmir already low on my cheat-sheet, and the new elbow concerns I will be hard pressed to draft him till the middle rounds.
Josh Beckett
Another elite pitcher that is having trouble this spring is Josh Beckett. Beckett has recently been sidelined with back spasms, and is going in for an
MRI to make sure it is nothing more serious. I doubt Kazmir or Beckett’s injury’s are too serious, and you might be able to get a good deal on
these two during the draft. I think back to one of my drafts last year, J.J. Putz had tightness in his elbow and everybody stayed away from him, I
ended up taking a gamble on him, and as you know it paid off. However there are several options to take ahead of Beckett and especially Kazmir,
I likely would not draft these guys too early or pay too much.
Albert Pujols
For some reason or another, Albert Pujols has fallen down my rankings. In fact I’m not planning on drafting him; of course if he falls enough then I’
ll be forced to draft him. (No later than 6th or 7th round) With his shoulder needing surgery, and he opting to wait, I tend to get nervous. He has
been a very consistent player, however with the subtraction of Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds, it is possible that Pujols has a down season. (Not to
mention 1st base has a lot of depth this year). I would think twice about drafting him in the top 4 spots this year.
Daric Barton
I know many folks in the Bay Area were hoping Daric Barton may become the next Jason Giambi, and possibly a candidate for Rookie of the Year.
With problems with his hand, (saw a hand specialist 3/6/2008), he will be limited in the coming weeks. This will most likely pave the way for Dan
Johnson to become the everyday first baseman and depending on how Barton’s Dr. visit goes; he may or may not be the DH for the team (at least
for the beginning of the season). Considering Barton was many fantasy players’ sleeper pick, you may want to think twice on drafting him now,
especially in a mixed league. He still may be worth a lat round selection in larger AL only leagues.
Eric Chavez
Eric Chavez is out with a shoulder injury, and could miss the opening game. Chavez didn’t have a ton of worth at the beginning of the season, but
now with him being pretty “banged up”; I will drop his stock to potentially nothing. He could possibly be a LATE round pick in AL only leagues.
Stay tuned to Easy Come, Easy go for more.
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March 6, 2008
Down At The Pawn Shop
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With Fantasy Baseball drafts rapidly approaching, you may find yourself saying: (“I have the third pick, who should I take”) There is not a lot of
difference between (Alex Rodriquez, Albert Pujols, Jose Reyes, David Wright). While the first few rounds in a fantasy draft are important, you’re
less likely to make a critical mistake in the first couple rounds, it is the later rounds when fantasy drafts are won. Look at an Experts draft in 2007:
Javier Vazquez was drafted in the 15th round by Rotowire after a 15-8 record and 213K’s, the experts at Yahoo now have him ranked around the
21st best pitcher. (Not bad for a 15th rounder). How about Brandon Phillips, in the same draft Phillips was drafted in the 10th round by Rotopass.
Phillips in the 2008 draft is likely a top 15 draft pick and most likely the # 2 option at 2B. It is players like these, in the later rounds of drafts that
make or break Fantasy Baseball drafts. Let’s examine 5 pitchers and 5 batters from the AL and NL that you are likely to get a good bargain on in
your 2008 fantasy baseball draft.
NL Hitters:
Rickie Weeks
Weeks has potential to hit 25HR and steal 30 bases, the 25 year old has had discomfort in his wrist for the past two seasons, possible hurting his
BA .234 last season and .278 in 2006. Yahoo ranks Weeks as the 9th best second baseman. If you are in a 10 team league and this holds true,
you will be loving it. Look at last year’s stats between Weeks, B.J. Upton (Yahoo 3rd ranked 2B) and Robinson Cano (Yahoo 5th ranked 2B)
AB R HR RBI SB BA
Weeks 409 87 16 36 25 .235
Cano 617 93 19 97 4 .306
Upton 474 86 24 82 22 .300
Looking at these stats if you can pick up Weeks in the 12th round like some are predicting (Fantasygameday.net), I think it is a major bargain. I
may even insure that I get and grab him in the 7th or 8th round.
Michael Bourn
In the late rounds of my fantasy draft last year I had Shane Victorino stashed away for a source of cheap steals. Not only did Victorino provide me
37SB, but he also pitched in 12 bombs. Not bad for a 15th round spot. Bourn, I’m hoping will be my Victorino this year (without the 12HR). In 119
bats last season, Bourn stole 18 bases and was only caught once. Given a starting position with the Astro’s, the 25 year old could steal 45+
bases this year. In my mind I don’t see a ton of difference between speedster Juan Pierre (64SB last year), and Bourn. Bourn is younger and has
a lot to prove, not to mention you should be able to get him much later than the other two listed players.
Kelly Johnson
I feel Johnson has the potential to be a 20-20 player this year, and he is not valued at that mark. Last year Johnson hit 16HR and stole 9 bases,
with a .270. A year older, I see Johnson’s numbers improve. My guess is 20HR and 15SB. Compare those stats to the projections for Dan Uggla
(21HR and 10SB), Uggla’s ADP (what does ADP stand for?) is around 17 spots earlier. Not to mention, Johnson will be playing for a better team.
Ken Griffey Jr
Griffey seems to be under valued more every year. Most fantasy players try finding the next great rookie, rather than sticking with the proven
veterans. Griffey at age 38 is actually healthy going into this season, something he has not been in recent years. Even with the injuries he has
suffered, he has averaged over 30HR during the past 3 seasons. Compare that to the 1st or 2nd round pick Matt Holliday, albeit 10 years
younger than Griffey, but has averaged under 30HR over the past 3 seasons. Make no doubt about it, Griffey will be around late in your draft,
and his SWEET swing, in a small ball-park, could find 40HR’s this season.
Troy Glaus
Glaus didn’t have a stellar year in 2007, only hitting 20HR and spending time on the bench with sore foot. It does seem like Glaus has a new injury
every year, however with an average of 30+HR over the last 3 seasons he could be a sleeper, surrounded by the good St. Louis Cardinal hitters.
Chipper Jones will hit for a better average (.337 compared to Glaus .262), however the 36 year old Jones only averaged 25HR’s over the past 3
seasons, and will go for a higher price and several rounds early than Glaus.
AL Pitchers:
Randy Johnson
If you find yourself looking for a pitcher in the later rounds and you say to yourself, “Boy it sure would be nice to find someone who can strikeout
290 batters while holding a 2.60 ERA”. Well look no further, as it was just 3 years ago Johnson had these exact stats. Last year Johnson started
the season throwing darts (72K in 57IP), unfortunately the season was cut short and Johnson had season ending back surgery. Consider the 44
year old an injury risk, but could do big things one more time.
Oliver Perez
Perez had an excellent year last year (174K, 177IP, 3.56ERA). At age 26, there is reason to believe he has yet to peak. Playing for the New York
Mets will only help. The lefty should see plenty of run support, which will help his W/L record. Perez seems to be going in the middle rounds of
drafts. If you can somehow work him into the middle of your draft you can smile.
Tom Gorzelanny
“A Pirates pitcher worth a spot on a Fantasy Baseball team??” If there is one Pirates pitcher that does warrant some attention it is Gorzelanny,
especially in deeper leagues. Gorzelanny had a pretty darn good year last year (214IP, 135K, 14-10, with a 3.88ERA) Compare those stats to
Roy Oswalt (212IP, 154K, 14-7, with a 3.18ERA) Not a whole lot of difference here, and you’ll most likely pay much more for Oswalt.
Brett Myers
Myers only started 3 games last year, and spent the rest of his time in the Closing role for the Phillies. The two prior years, Myers had very
respectable years, averaging 207IP and striking out 199. Brandon Funston of Yahoo, ranks Myers as the 28th best SP, I wouldn’t rank him much
higher than that, but you might see him drop to the late rounds (due to him closing games last year) in your draft, if you do see that make sure
you pounce on him, as he could regain “ACE STATUS” for the Phillies in 2008.
Jason Hirsh
Through his first two years in the big leagues, Jason Hirsh hasn’t lived up to his full potential; averaging a 5.16ERA, 104K in 157IP. Struggling in
Houston, the Astro’s traded Hirsh to Colorado, after slowly improving Hirsh ended his season with a leg injury. Coming into his third season, the 6’
5” youngster may show something similar to what he did in the AAA-Round Rock minor leagues; 2.10ERA, 137IP and 118K. At any rate, Hirsh will
be pitching for the contending Rockies and will be available cheap and late in fantasy drafts.
AL Hitters:
Nick Swisher
Swisher is making the move to a good power hitters park (U.S. Cellular) from a typically poor park (McAfee Coliseum). In 2006 his numbers
showed his power potential with 35 long balls. Depending on where he bats in the order, he’ll benefit from better batters around him (Thome,
Konerko, Dye) as well more RBI potential. At the “prime” age of 27, I expect big things from the switch hitting Swisher, expect around 32-37 bombs
with around a .280BA, and over 100RBI’s.
Adrian Beltre
Coming into his prime years, the 28 year old could put up some big numbers this year. Just 3 years ago he hit 48HR for the contending L.A.
Dodgers. Maybe if the Mariners can contend this year, he’ll have a similar campaign. It’s safe to say at a minimum Beltre will hit around .270,
25HR, close to 100RBI’s, and double digit SB. Not bad for a player ranked around 10th in his position. If your looking for a good 3B option in the
middle rounds, give Beltre a close look.
Alex Gordon
Gordon has the talent to break into a top tier, it is just a matter of time before we see it. The kid is just 24 and didn’t have the best year last year
(15HR, 60RBI, and .247BA). Don’t forget in minors 2006, Gordon belted 29 bombs, 100RBI, 23SB, .326BA. Those are David Wright numbers and
could be yours for a fairly decent price. In www.fantasygameday.net mock draft Gordon went in the 11th round, Yahoo ranks him 11th at for first
basemen.
Rocco Baldelli
This guy has been a major disappointment the past two years; he’s only played 127 games. However during that period Baldelli hit 21HR and
stole 14 bases and that was probably scratching the service for him. Given a full season he could easily be a 25-25 guy, with a decent batting
average. I doubt many people will target the 26 year old. You should be able to scoop him up in the later rounds.
Hank Blalock
After two sub-par seasons (last season cut short due to a shoulder injury), Hank Blalock hopes to continue his career how it started. Prior to the
past two years, Blalock has had a great start to his MLB career averaging 29HR’s and 97RBI’s over his first three full seasons. Blalock could be a
great sleeper, just 27 years young, playing at the “launching pad” Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, and batting in the middle of a decent Texas
lineup.
AL Pitchers:
Andy Pettitte
Coming off a tumultuous off-season; Pettitte gears up to take the Bronx Bombers to the promised land. He quietly had a pretty good season last
year (15-9, 141K, 4.05ERA), and surprisingly enough he didn’t get the best run support. In his first 7 games, he gave up respectively (2, 0, 0, 1,
2, 0, 5 earned runs) and shocking as it is; only got 1 win from all those starts. Only allowing that limited amount of runs, Pettitte should have been
6-1 vs. 1-1. Not to mention Pettitte has a ton to prove this year, I see Pettitte doing “special things” in 2008.
Ervin Santana
I wouldn’t be surprised if at some point in the 2008 season, Santana found himself at the top end of the Angels rotation. On the other hand, many
people wouldn’t be surprised if he wound up pitching in Salt Lake City again. Santana was great at home and poor on the road last year.
Eventually the youngster (25) will put it all together and become a great pitcher. The fact that he plays in the weak AL West, facing the Rangers, A’
s, and Mariners often, he should record a decent W/L record, and his K/IP should get better every year. (Averaging .75K per IP, over the last two
years) Santana is an excellent choice late in the draft, and has extreme up-side potential.
Dontrelle Willis
This kid is only 26, was traded to a major contender (Detroit Tigers), and two years ago was a contender for the “CY Young” award. (2005; 236IP,
170K, 2.63ERA) I know he had a down year last year (10-15, 145K/205IP and a 5.172ERA), but he is a fiery competitor and will play much better
for the Tigers. Make sure you grab him in the middle rounds as he will do good things. Typically when pitchers move from the National League to
the American league, you see a decline in K’s (no longer pitching to pitchers). However, Willis has a funky wind-up/delivery, which could take
American league batters a while to catch on. I’m thinking 180K’s, 3.50ERA with 15 wins.
Boof Bonser
The one time MVP for the South Atlantic Minor League, heads into Minnesota’s spring training hoping for a major MLB breakout season. With the
departure of ace Johan Santana, the Twins are hoping the promising youngster (26years) can also show that he is finally ready to be a star. In
2005 and 2006 he averaged close to a K:IP (168K/160IP and 83K/86IP, while holding down a 3.87 and 2.81ERA respectively) It seems like the
Twins just churn out good pitcher after good pitcher, let’s see if Bonser becomes the next “Twin-City Monster”.
Cliff Lee
Just two years ago Cliff Lee won 18 games in only his second full season in the big leagues. After suffering an abdominal strain, Lee was sent to
the minors where he pitched well (41IP, 50K at 3.51ERA). He is now fighting for a spot in the Cleveland starting rotation. Considering he wins a
starting job, Lee could be a valuable Fantasy Pitcher for a good Cleveland Indians team and you will be able to get him cheap or in the late
rounds.
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March 1, 2008
You Get In, Where You Fit In
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Early March brings two things to mind, March Madness and SPRING TRAINING. For the many Fantasy Baseball fans this means filling out
brackets and spending countless hours studying players for the upcoming Fantasy Draft. While Spring Training for most players is merely a place
to dust off the cobwebs, loosen up, and get ready for the long grueling season. However, some players are trying to earn their spot on the team
and more importantly in the starting line-up. While most position battles rarely affect Fantasy Baseball, some play a large part on whether the
young “stud” rookie gets a shot to show his stuff. Let’s take a look at each team’s position battles.
Washington Nationals
The Nationals have a crowded outfield (OF) with several players fighting for a starting position. I believe on opening day you’ll see Wily Mo Pena
(LF), Lastings Milledge (CF) and Austin Kearns (RF). Elijah Dukes and the “speedster” Willie Harris are not far behind, and considering the youth
of all these players you could possibly see several different combinations. Between Pena, Milledge, Kearns, and Dukes you’re looking at 20-25hr’
s for 2008, depending on AB’s. While Harris will most likely be used as a pinch runner, he does offer a cheap source for speed (depending on AB’
s)
The Nationals also have some question marks in the middle-infield. Cristian Guzman, Felipe Lopez, and Ronnie Belliard all in the mix for a starting
position. Lopez offers the most help for a Fantasy Baseball team (27 SB 2007); however his fielding woes (21 errors 2007) may cost him a spot in
the line-up. Guzman does not have much pop (10HR career high) and has only eclipsed double digit SB’s once since 2003. Belliard defensively
plays a good 2B, hits for a decent average with some occasional pop. (2007, 11HR, .290avg)
Atlanta Braves
The battle for the 4th and 5th spot in the rotation will be the main battle in Spring Training for the Braves. Chuck James offers the most MLB
experience (48 starts the last 2 seasons), but the two young prospects; Jair Jurrjens (94K’s in 112IP, in AA-Erie last season) and Jo-Jo Reyes (2-0
with a 3.10 in Sept. 07 for the Braves) offer late-round sleeper potential.
New York Mets
Who is going to round out the starting rotation for the “Metropolitans”? Will it be the aging “vet”, Orlando Hernandez or the rising “rook” Mike
Pelfrey? While the higher upside points to the 6’7” 230lb, Pelfrey, I doubt the Mets will stick with Pelfrey’s higher ERA 5.57 compared to
Hernandez 3.72 in 2007. Keep a close watch on this one during Spring Training, as Pelfrey at 24, could have a break out year.
Florida Marlins
With the departure of Miguel Cabrera, “The Fish” will be looking long and hard who should fill his shoes at the hot-corner (3B). The battle will be
between Dallas McPherson, Jose Castillo and Jorge Cantu. McPherson the young former prospect of the Los Angeles Angels had an average of .
247 with 18HR’s in 117 games with the Angels. However the young prospect has been hampered with injuries, possibly with a full year under his
belt he could break-out. Cantu in 2006 (28HR’s) looked to be comparable to a Chase Utley, but his 2007 season took a major step back, being
sent down to the minors, traded to Cincinnati and now on to Florida. Castillo has not done much in the big leagues but did show some signs of
talent in the Minors (2002; A-Lynchburg, 16HR and 27SB)
St. Louis Cardinals
With the departure of Jim Edmonds the Cardinals find themselves trying to decide who can play their third OF spot. Chris Duncan will most likely
play LF and Rick Ankiel will play either CF or RF depending on who gets the nod for the other OF spot. Colby Rasmus is the big time prospect
and has 30-30 potential (29HR-18SB in AA-Springfield) however he’s young and has never played higher than AA. Skip Schumaker has a bit
more experience playing the past two seasons in AAA-Memphis, not quite as much pop as Rasmus (10HR in 154games in Memphis). Ryan
Ludwick has the most MLB experience and provided the Cardinals with decent service last year (14HR, 4SB, .267avg) Brian Barton acquired from
Cleveland is also in the running. (In 131 games in AAA-Buffalo and AA-Akron, hit 10HR, stole 21 bases and hit above .300) As high as Rasmus is
on many fantasy sleeper lists, considering the competition, he may not get the AB’s to warrant a spot on a Fantasy Baseball team. However, if
Rasmus does win a spot this Spring, consider him a major sleeper going into the 2008 MLB season.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers 4th and 5th spot are wide open, and they have fine choices to choose from. The rotation going into Spring Training is set to be 1.
Ben Sheets, 2. Jeff Suppan, 3. Dave Bush. Yovani Gallardo, Manny Parra, Carlos Villanueva, Chris Capuano, and Cladio Vargas all battling for
the 4th and 5th spots. Not a bad spot to be in if you’re the Brewers, as all of these pitchers have shown glimpses of greatness. Bush didn’t have a
great year last year (12-10 with a 5.12ERA) but somehow still owns a spot in the rotation.
Gollardo: May be young but is a “K machine” (101K, 110IP in 2007), should win a starting slot and is an excellent sleeper. Parra: is also a young
“flame-thrower” with a great strike-out rate, (in 2007, 106IP and 106SO, albeit in the minors) and being a lefty, he may get a shot in the rotation.
Villanueva and Vargas offer the least fantasy baseball value (2007 ERA respectively: 3.94, 5.09), but do warrant some attention.
Houston Astros
The Astros seem to have found there catcher for the coming years; J.R. Towels. During his 40AB stint in the MLB last season he hit for a .
375AVG and 1 “bomb”. Towels has some sleeper potential if he can keep up a good BA going into 2008. The veteran Brad Ausmus will be waiting
on the side if Towels falters.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds traded the once #1 draft pick Josh Hamilton away to Texas this season. Possibly to make room in CF for the hot prospect Jay Bruce.
Bruce cruised threw A, AA, and AAA last season, his batting average stayed above .300 in all three leagues and hit 26HR’s. Ryan Freel (coming
off knee injury) and Norris Hopper are also in the running for an everyday job in 2008. Both have speed (15 and 14SB respectively).
Los Angeles Dodgers
With the addition of Andruw Jones, the Dodgers will keep a close watch on Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier during Spring Training. Jones will hold
down CF and Juan Pierre will move over to RF, while Kemp and Ethier will battle for LF. After a pretty decent 2007 (.342AVG, 10HR, 10SB) Kemp
probably holds the starting job now. But if he struggles at all, Ethier may get the node. Hopefully the two don’t share the RF spot; otherwise it
would be difficult to draft either one.
The other big battle for the Dodgers will be between Nomar Garciaparra and Andy LaRoche. Garciaparra seems to be aging fast watching his
production drop year after year. (Averaging 11HR over the last four years) LaRoche has a bunch of up-side, batting .309 and 18HR in AAA-Las
Vegas. Giving the opportunity to play, he could hit 25HR’s for the Dodgers this year.
San Diego Padres
The Padres will spend Spring trying to decide who will play LF. The LF battle is between the once third baseman Chase Headley and Matt
Antoneli. Headley had a terrific year in AA-San Antonio last season, batting .330 and hitting 20HR’s. Antoneli playing 2B went from A-Lake
Elsinore to AA-San Antonio hitting 14HR, 7HR’s respectively, and had a BA over .300. Both players have some sleeper potential, but it looks like
you may see a platoon situation at leas till one player stands out.
Colorado Rockies
With the departure of Kaz Matsui, the Rockies are anxious to see if prospect Ian Stewart can make the move from 3B to 2B. The left handed
batter had a promising season in the minors (AAA-Colorado Springs) last year hitting .304, 15HR and 11SB. Big time sleeper potential and a
relatively weak position in 2B. Colorado did bring in the one time All Star Marcus Giles, from San Diego. If Giles can get back to his good
production days in Atlanta, he could find himself with the starting job.
San Francisco Giants
It will be interesting to see what happens in the Giants infield this spring. Right now Rich Aurilia, Ray Durham, Kevin Frandsen, and Daniel
Ortmeier are all in the hunt for a starting job. Frandsen played some 2B for the Giants late last season but some say he may move over to 3B and
push the aging Aurilia to 1B. Now if the 6’4” Ortmeier has a great spring he could win the 1B job. (Ortmeier AAA-Fresno hit 10HR, 16SB) We’ll
know much more once Spring Training begins.
Baltimore Orioles
With the addition of Adam Jones from Seattle, and Luke Scott from Houston Astro’s, Journeyman, Jay Payton may once again lose his starting OF
spot. Jones is likely to take the CF sport and Scott to LF, with Nick Markakis cemented in RF. While Scott’s average isn’t the greatest .255 (2007),
he does provide decent pop (18HR in 369AB).
Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Sun, has reported that the Blue Jay will begin the season with Matt Stairs and Reed Johnson sharing the LF spot. Stairs can hit the
long ball (21HR in 2007) but if the 5’9” 220lb veteran can’t field balls cleanly in Spring Training, Johnson may get the majority of starts. Johnson
may be quicker than Stairs, but doesn’t warrant a lot of attention for Fantasy Baseball. If Stairs gets enough AB’s he may be a decent cheap
source for HR’s.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox will have a touch decision who to start in CF; Jacoby Ellsbury or Coco Crisp. Some have said it will be Ellsbury; however that could
change in the spring. Both players have speed (41 in the minors for Ellsbury, while Crisp swiped 28 in Boston) Keep a close eye on this one, as
both of these players could help out a Fantasy team, ideally the Red Sox will trade one of these players, most likey Crisp.
New York Yankees
ESPN reports that Joba Chamberlain will begin the season in the bullpen, which my guess is that’s where he’ll be most, if not all the season. This
leaves the 5th spot in the Yankee rotation open. Ian Kennedy is probably the front runner to round out the rotation. Last season Kennedy was
called up late in the season where he pitched a very respectable; 19IP in 3 starts, striking out 15 and an ERA of 1.89. Kei Igawa will also be in the
running this March, even though Igawa had a rocky debut season for the Yankees, he does have promise. (In 2006 for Hanshin Japan, he went
13-9 with a 3.11ERA and 184K’s in 200IP). All three of these pitchers have sleeper potential and could help a fantasy team, be sure to see who
wins the spot in the rotation.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
The long awaited debut of Evan Longoria may be over. Longoria (26HR’s in the minors last season) looks to be the starter at 3B for the Rays,
moving Akinori Iwamura to 2b. Eric Hinske was brought in from Boston just in case Longoria needs some fine tuning in the early months of 2008.
Longoria warrants some sleeper potential, and with Iwamura at 2b, he could be a serviceable middle infielder in deeper leagues.
Chicago White Sox
Josh Fields showed lots of promise during his rookie campaign. (23HR’s in 2007) However, he will need to improve his batting average if he wants
to start over Joe Crede. Crede was limited to just 47 games last year, suffering with an injured back. There have been numerous rumors that that
Crede will be traded before the season starts. If Crede does not get traded, expect these two to share 3B. If these two split time at 3B, it will
significantly hamper their fantasy value.
The Sox brought in Orlando Cabrera to be their everyday short-stop. The Cabrera pick-up will have Juan Uribe and Danny Richar battling for 2B.
Uribe is a perennial 20HR player (averaging 20HR over the past 4 seasons), and moving to 2B could make him a decent pickup, especially in
deeper leagues. The young Richar could be the future for the Sox at 2B (In the AAA minors last season he hit above .300 and 13HR). We should
learn more about this situation during Spring Training.
Detroit Tigers
Jacque Jones left a platoon situation with the Chicago Cubs and started a new platoon role with the Tigers. Jones will most like share left field with
Marcus Thames. Both players bat on opposite sides of the plate, and hit for around 20-25HR’s in a full season of AB’s. IF one of them wins the
clear-cut starting job, they’ll warrant some attention in deeper fantasy leagues, however I see these two share AB’s all season.
Minnesota Twins
During the off-season the Twins acquired Brendan Harris from the Devil Rays. The Twins also picked up Adam Everett from the Astro’s. The two
acquisitions will likely put Nick Punto and Harris battling out a spot for 2B. However, depending on how things “pan out” this spring Harris could
find a starting short-stop position, as he did in Tampa Bay. Of the three players, Punto provides the most fantasy baseball value. (16SB in 2007)
Kansas City Royals
Ross Gload, Billy Butler, and Ryan Shealy will spend spring battling for the starting first base position, with the consolation prize being the DH for
the Royals. Butler has the most upside potential and could be a big-time fantasy sleeper this year. (In his last 176AB’s, 28HR, and batting over .
300) Shealy and Gload have never produced any eye popping stats, and do not warrant much attention for fantasy teams.
With the newly acquired Jose Guillen spending the first 15 games on the bench, due to violating baseball’s drug program, the Royals will most
likely start the season with the “SPEEDSTER” Joey Gathright in right field. If Gathright had more of an opportunity to play, he could be a viable
source for SB. (last 208 games, he stole 31 bags, with an upside potential) But it is likely that Guillen (2007, batted .290, 23HR) will spend most of
the time in the starting line-up. There is an outside shot, that Gathright could either DH or play left and Guillen the visa-versa. I’d watch and see
how Gathright looks at the plate during Spring Training, before drafting him. Guillen does provide some pop and may warrant a late round draft
pick in deeper leagues.
John Buck ranked 5th in HR’s (18HR’s) among MLB catchers last season. Despite his poor batting average of .222, he was a very serviceable
catcher for fantasy baseball. It is quite interesting that the Royals went out and picked up Miguel Olivo from the Marlins. Olivo ranked 9th among
catchers with 16HR, and a batting average of .236. My guess is Buck will get a majority of the playing time, however with the addition of Olivo you
may see a slight decrease in value (due to a decrease in AB) from both of these players.
Cleveland Indians
Josh Barfield did not have the break-out season that many expected he’d have in 2007. (.243BA, 3HR, 14SB) In fact toward the end of the
season, the Indians started Asdrubal Cabrera at 2B. Cabrera’s numbers (2007 minor’s; 8HR, 23SB, 7 times caught stealing in AA-Akron) will not
get him a ton of fantasy appeal, but he may start if Barfield continues his struggles into this season. Barfield could be a sleeper if he can return to
his rookie form in San Diego where he hit 13HR, stole 21SB and hit for an average of .280.
Los Angeles Angels
Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, and Dustin Moseley will compete for the 5th spot in the Angels rotation. Santana might have the best stuff (126K, in
150IP last season); he will just need to keep his ERA down. (2007 5.76ERA) With Kelvim Escobar missing a couple weeks to begin the 2008
season (shoulder soreness), you will most likely see two of the pitchers listed above in the rotation. Santana and Escobar are the best fantasy
options because of their high strike-out rate. However, Saunders and Moseley are potential sleepers, especially in deep leagues. (Should get a
fair amount of Wins on a good Angels team)
With the departure of Cabrera to the White Sox, the Angels also will have a decision who to start at short-stop. The highly touted rookie Brand
Wood may get a shot to show his power in the big leagues. After a 43HR’s in single A ball (2005; A-Rancho), he came back to earth hitting an
average of 24HR over the past two seasons (AA-Arkansas, AAA-Salt Lake). Challenging Wood, are Erick Aybar and Maicer Izturis. These two
options both have some speed but not a lot of pop.
Texas Rangers
The Rangers will keep an eye on a few relief pitchers this spring, trying to decide who they are going to hand the ball to in the ninth inning. The
lead candidates are C.J. Wilson (LHP) and Joaquin Benoit (RHP). Benoit had a tad bit better season last year (82IP, 87K, 2.85ERA), compared to
Wilson (68IP, 63K, 3.03ERA). With Wilson being a leftie, the Rangers could use him as a situational pitcher to get out of key situations, primarily a
big bat from the left side. (Similar to George Sherril’s role in Seattle last year). Eddie Guardado also will have a shot to close for the Rangers,
although the veteran closer has not shown much in recent years.
Seattle Mariners
With the trade of Adam Jones and Jose Guillen the Mariners will be looking to fill an open slot in right field. The M’s picked up Brad Wilkerson, so
all signs would be he will be the front-runner for the open position. Wilkerson given an everyday job can give a fantasy team between 20-25HR,
although his average isn’t likely to be higher than .250. Young prospects Wladimir Balentien and Jeremy Reed will challenge Wilkerson for the
starting position this spring. Balentien averaged 23HR over the past two seasons (in the minors) and an BA just above .260, he also will throw in
around 15SB. Between 2005 and 2006 Reed played in 208 games, and didn’t show much; (BA .235, 9HR and 14SB), he likely will have a lot to
prove this spring if he wants the starting job.
Oakland Athletics
The A’s called up Daric Barton last September to see if he could start as their everyday 1rst baseman. Barton did not disappoint, hitting .347 and
4HR’s. However the A’s brought in the five-time All Star Mike Sweeney to compete with Barton and Dan Johnson. If Sweeney can stay healthy and
show he can compete at a high level again, he may bump the two youngsters. Johnson in the past two years just can’t seem to keep his average
up enough for Billy Bean’s liken; (BA.234 in 2006 with 9HR, and a .235BA in 2007 with 18HR) Whoever wins the starting job here, could help a
fantasy team out at CI in deeper leagues.
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