Outfielders:
1. Matt Holliday
Having replaced Todd Helton as the Rockies’ franchise player, Holliday has emerged as the best outfielder in the major
leagues, much less the National League. Ending 2007 with a jaw-dropping .340 average, 36 homers, and 137 RBI, it’s easy
to forget that Matt also swiped 11 bags. His exponential improvement in the last four seasons points to a player who has
learned, made adjustments, and worked hard to build on his natural ability. If similar strides are made in 2008, Holliday
would become the most credible triple-crown contendor in the NL (since former franchise player Todd Helton’s days of
yore). The idea of besting 2007’s totals this season is incomprehensible to most fantasy GMs, but rule nothing out as this
27 year old superstar’s stock is on the rise. Having enjoyed two years of Matt Holliday in one of our keeper leagues, we are
officially on the Holliday bandwagon. You should be too! He will go in the high first round of mixed league drafts and is
becoming a credible contender for first overall pick in NL-only formats.
2. Alfonso Soriano
Imagine a player so talented that an off year is 30/20 type production with an average pushing .300. If you were successful
in this exercise, you should have seen the visage of Alfonso Soriano in your mind’s eye. Few players could have enjoyed a
career best 40/40 season at RFK stadium, but Soriano conquered the Nationals’ former home park with aplomb. Now a
sophomore Chicago Cub, and enjoying his new home at Wrigley Field, Soriano has not yet exploded for the kind of
offensive blitzkrieg one would have expected in 2007. A year separated from his lucrative contract and injury-laden 2007,
we expect a bounce-back season from Soriano. Again, it is hard to use the words “bounce-back” when .299 with 33 homers
and 19 steals, but it would surprise nobody if Alfonso posted 40 long-balls in 2008 with a small drop in average and steals.
3. Carlos Lee
A menacing presence at the plate, Lee stands in at 6’2, 240lbs, and uses every bit of that size to power the ball out to all
fields. In 2007, Carlos pounded 32 homers, drove in 119 runs, and batted .303. Having hit 30+ homers and driven in 99+
RBI in the past five seasons, Lee has become a reliable source of outfield homers, RBI, and average (and surprisingly 10
or so steals per season, on average, also). Carlos Lee had a monster second half, and will enjoy the added lineup
protection afforded by Miguel Tejada. Think of Lee as Matt Holliday-lite, and expect his stock to rise in 2008.
4. Carlos Beltran
Two knee surgeries later, we aren’t sure Beltran will begin the season healthy, nor can anyone be sure that his speed will
return following the operations, but one thing is for certain, when he is healthy – Carlos Beltran can flat out rake. Whether
batting lefty or righty, Beltran can put the ball out against almost anybody, and even with ailing wheels, he still swiped 23
bases in 25 attempts in 2007. Think Alfonso Soriano-lite and assume his stock will drop in 2008 following an off-season
spent in recovery.
5. Lance Berkman
It is hard to think of Lance Berkman as the veteran on the Astros, but now that Craig Biggio has opted for the beach over
the diamond, Berkman will be the veteran ‘Stro in 2008. A fan favorite in Houston, Lance pounded 34 homers, drove in 102
runs, and batted .278 in what was undeniably an off-year for him. The 2006 season represented what a healthy, inspired
Berkman is capable of, and if he is vigorous and driven in ’08, similar numbers can be expected. He will benefit from the
addition of Tejada like his left field counterpart Carlos Lee, and should be good for 35+ jacks, 100+ RBI, and around a .300
average.
6. Adam Dunn
The cliché “feeding fire with fire” may well be what the pairing of manager Dusty Baker and OF/1B Adam Dunn may well be
for the Reds. It is hard to predict the effect of Baker. To Adam’s credit, the 2007 season was his best since 2004, and
represented a step toward suppressing his growing strikeout totals. Will the addition of Baker stagnate or inspire Dunn? We
think Dunn will be inspired and have an excellent 2008 campaign, which means the usual 40-45 homers and 100+ RBI.
Dunn is like clockwork, so expect more of the same or better, because at age 28 this star may still be rising.
7. Jason Bay
It was a quick fall from grace for Jason Bay, who prior to 2007, had posted 30+ homers and 100+ RBI for two consecutive
seasons. The ’07 season saw Bay dip to 21 homers and 84 RBI to go with an unimpressive .247 average. Many fantasy GM’
s traded for Bay after a slow start expecting a rebound in the second half, only to be punished to the tune of a .237
average, 8 homers, and 28 RBI in 211 at bats. Fantasy GMs weren’t the only ones thinking about trading Bay. Jason’s
name has surfaced in trade rumors throughout the off-season, and another down season might inspire Dave Littlefield to
move Bay for a package of prospects. So, buyer beware to NL-only fantasy managers who may lose Bay in a deal to the AL
if he falls apart. But, as of now Jason Bay leads the pack of contenders for Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year honors.
8. Chris Young
With a monstrous second half and stellar first season, Young came 3 steals short of going 30/30 in just his freshman year.
To build on this effort entering 2008, Chris Young will have to walk more, strikeout less, and maintain the power he
tantalized fantasy managers with during 2007. Is Young up to the task? At 23 years of age, Chris Young certainly can, but a
sophomore slump is equally if not more likely. Expect a slight drop in both power and speed, but a rise in batting average.
9. Eric Byrnes
Byrnes went on a rampage during 2007, swiping 50 bags and setting a new personal best in steals. His power dropped
noticeably, though. In 2006, Byrnes homered every 21.6 at bats. In 2007, however, Eric put the ball out every 30 at bats.
The power outage during ’07 was most evident during the second half, when Byrnes hit only 7 homers while redeeming
himself with an astounding 33 steals in 34 attempts. So which is the real Eric Byrnes - the roughly 20/20 threat or the
fantasy superstar 20/50 threat? At age 31, and with the right conditioning, Byrnes may quiet doubters who feel the 50
steals were a flash-in-the-pan, but more likely than not a return to 20/20 type numbers are in the cards for this hustling
veteran left-fielder.
10. Juan Pierre
With the installation of Andruw Jones in center field, many thought Juan Pierre would be sent packing before the 2008
season began. The Dodgers decided to stick with Pierre (either because of loyalty or his sizeable contract) but shift him to
left field. A famously second-half player, Juan Pierre batted .308 after the break, swiping 30 bases in 36 attempts along the
way. New manager Joe Torre will have his hands full, finding ways to give Kemp, Ethier, Jones, and Pierre adequate work.
Juan Pierre’s value lies in his reliability. Normally good for around 50-60 steals, few players in the game are as consistent at
notching stolen bases as Pierre. Draft or purchase-at-auction confidently expecting the usual .290-.300 average with 50-60
steals.
11. Andruw Jones
Nobody requires redemption more in 2008 than Andruw Jones. His ill-timed collapse during a contract season surprised
many fantasy GMs who expected his stock to rise during 2007. Instead, Jones-owners were punished to the tune of a .222
average, 26 homers, and 94 RBI. Everything went wrong in ’07. Jones whiffed more, walked less, homered less, made
contact more infrequently, and teased fans with spurts of success that lent credence to the belief that a turnaround was
imminent. Instead, even in the second half, Jones batted an anemic .236 with 11 homers in 250 at bats. We think that a
change of address and new management might revitalize Jones (in spite of his .233 lifetime batting average in Dodger
Stadium), but gone are the days of 50 homers and a .260+ average. The long swing and inability to work out of slumps by
making adjustments, leave us expecting around 30+ homers and 100+ RBI with around a .250 average.
12. Hunter Pence
Think a more kinetic Jeremy Hermida with a potentially higher ceiling.If Pence did not go down with a fractured wrist, Ryan
Braun might have gotten a better run for his money for 2007 Rookie of the Year. It was difficult for Pence to get back into a
groove after his recall following rehabilitation. Totaling 17 homers and 11 steals in 456 at bats with a .322 average, Pence
posted impressive numbers in his freshman year. We are not sold on Hunter Pence as a .300 hitter in the big leagues yet,
but think his 20-25 home run power is legitimate, as is his 10-15 stolen base speed. With a few more seasons under his
belt, Pence may break the top five overall outfielders, but for now he is good for twelfth among NL outfielders and a worthy
grab in any draft or auction.
13. Jeff Francoeur
Francoeur wins runner-up for most difficult last name to spell in the Bigs (winner would be Jarrod Saltalamacchia). In all
seriousness, though, Jeff Francoeur’s 2007 campaign might superficially be chalked up to a step backward for the budding
star outfielder. Jeff entered the 2007 season intent on walking more and becoming a more complete player. On all counts,
Francoeur succeeded in ’07. His 19 homers is ten fewer than during 2006, but he did in fact walk more, whiff less, and
doubled 16 more times than the previous season. So, the power outage was well-accounted for by the increased doubles
totals, and a more patient Francoeur actually approached .300 while swiping five bases.
14. Brad Hawpe
Always tempting Clint Hurdle to platoon him against lefties, Hawpe has managed to post superb numbers in spite of being
an empty space in the lineup card against southpaws. The past three seasons have seen Hawpe jump from barely a double-
digit home run threat, to a credible threat to break 30 homers in 2008. With aging former-prospect Jeff Baker knocking at
the door, Hawpe will have to develop a quick sense of how to hold his own against lefties or may end up on the better end
of a platoon. However, the only real impact to Brad Hawpe’s value would be a rise in batting average and slight decline in
power. Either way, Brad Hawpe is a solid pick to hit 25+ homers and bat around .300.
15. Pat Burrell
Batting a painful .215 before the all-star break, Pat “The Bat” ended the year at a tolerable .256. Burrell hit 30 homers for
the first time since ’05, and, in many ways with his strong finish, silenced the throngs of disgruntled Philly fans who had
vociferously pressed for his departure. More importantly, Burrell held his own against righties, dispelling the theory that he
was, at best, a platoon batter. With a new contract to play for at age 31, and growing walk totals paired with decreasing
strikeouts, Pat Burrell seems poised for a solid 2008. With his long swing and streakiness, Burrell owners will need to be
patient, but we expect a strong finish in ’08 for Pat “The Bat.”
16. Shane Victorino
Victorino was one of those players that just needed an audition to win a starting job. Won it he did, to the tune of 12 homers
and 37 steals. Shane batted .281, playing predominantly in right field. Victorino will take over for Aaron Rowand in center
field in 2008 and may be slated to bat leadoff, forcing Jimmy Rollins into the two hole. Shane Victorino’s power spike was
unexpected given his historical pop, and vanished after the all-star break, so is difficult to rely upon, but his speed is
legitimate. Speed alone will drive Victorino’s value through the roof, but whether he cashes in on the hype remains to be
seen.
17. Ken Griffey, Jr.
After three partial seasons of mediocrity due to injury, Griff seems to have reasserted himself as reliable source of home
runs and RBI’s. While his days of hitting 40+ homers are a distant memory, Griffey still does a lot of things well at the plate.
Cutting down on strikeouts, walking more than ever before, and reaching 30 homers at age 38 restore his place in the top
20 outfielders in NL-only formats.
18. Aaron Rowand
Always talented and tenacious, Rowand did what he could not do previously last season – he stayed healthy and focused.
Without the offensively-charged Philadelphia offense behind him, Aaron will be looked at as the heart-and-soul of a San
Francisco lineup now devoid of Barry Bonds. With little protection in the order, a pitcher-friendly home ballpark, and no
conceivable chance of a pennant in the near future, Aaron Rowand’s stock certainly drops in 2008. Expect nothing close to
last season’s performance, and think Mark Kotsay with lesser health risk.
19. Willy Tavares
The master of the infield hit, Willy Tavares now has the benefit of a spacious Colorado outfield to spray hits. Though limited
to only 372 at bats, Willy batted .330 in he roomier home park, lifting his season average to an impressive .320, overall. Still
just 27 years of age, Tavares has the opportunity to build on an impressive 2007 this year for the defending NL champs.
We expect a rise in stolen bases but a drop in batting average for Willy “Mays-Hayes” Tavares.
20. Chris Duncan
Though he looks like a cross between a linebacker and a gladiator, Chris Duncan is the last vestige of lineup protection
afforded superstar Albert Pujols. Duncan has powered 44 homers in 665 total at bats, yet remains a perennial platoon
candidate due to an abysmal .209 lifetime average against southpaws. Like Brad Hawpe, Duncan still has a lot of work to do
to silence platoon advocates. His prodigious power, even in a platoon scenario, is worth a look and should flourish in 2008
with improved health and a rise in plate appearances.
21. Mike Cameron
You know it was a weak class of free agents this season when Mike Cameron gets suspended for 25 games for violating the
league’s substance abuse policy and a bidding war ensues. Never a help in the batting average department, Cameron has
solidified his reputation as a credible 20/20 threat barring injury. His glovework in center field will always keep him in the
lineup card, and his approach and veteran leadership will be valued on a fresh-faced Milwaukee team. Mike Cameron has
hit better away from PETCO Park in the past and done astonishingly well in limited playing time at Miller Park. Look for
another season of 20/20 in spite of the immediate subtraction of 25 games off the top.
22. Jeremy Hermida
Finally cashing in on his considerable talent, Hermida slammed 18 homers, 32 doubles, and batted .296 in his first almost-
full season in the Bigs. We are not yet sold on Hermida’s ability to stay healthy for an entire year. That said, if Jeremy can
accomplish that much, there is no reason to expect less than 20 homers and 10 steals.
23. Kosuke Fukudome
Widely considered the top bat in Japanese baseball, Fukudome will be roaming the outfield in Wrigley Field in 2008. A
bandbox of a ballpark, Fukudome will have to overcome struggles against more challenging, Major League pitching. A 30+
home run lock in Japan, we expect Fukudome to follow in the shoes of Hideki Matsui, Kazuo Matsui, and Akinori Iwamura.
That is to say that we expect Kosuke Fukudome to flirt with 20 homers, at best, and steal some bases along the way. Think
Mark Kotsay with more RBI.
24. Josh Willingham
Ever hear the expression less is more? Well in Willingham’s case, fewer home runs in more at bats to go with an
unimpressive .265 average was good for more headaches for Josh’s fantasy owners. With a solid second half and relatively
clean bill of health to enter 2008, Josh Willingham looks like a potential bounce-back player this season.
25. Austin Kearns
Another in a long list of Nationals slain by their own home ballpark, Kearns’ career has been downhill since his promising
rookie campaign in 2002 for the Reds. Last season was significant for two reasons, though. The first, it proved that Austin
was capable of staying healthy for an entire season. Second, it proved just how much RFK killed him. Batting .301 away
and .228 at home (.242 lifetime average at RFK), Kearns has a lot of upside in 2008. Many experts have prognosticated
that Zimmerman will be the first to benefit from the new home park, but we caution readers about selling Kearns short. He
may never hit the 30 homers as he was once thought capable, but Austin Kearns can be counted on for about 20+ homers
if he can manage to turn out another year of 500+ at bats.
26. Randy Winn
Few players have done it as long as Winn. Although he will dazzle you in no one category, he will hurt you no place either,
posting respectable totals in HR, RBI, SB, and BA. Randy Winn is typically undervalued among a sea of outfielders with
more glitzy power or speed resumes, but when you add it all up – he’s a solid fourth or fifth outfielder that may have more
left in the tank than expected based on his 42 doubles during 2007.
27. Justin Upton
Very few rookies hit the ground running in the Bigs and Justin was no exception. Slapping two homers and swiping two
bases in his first 140 major league at bats did not make a lasting impression with Arizona fans. Diamondbacks’ brass faith in
Upton rests upon his speedy ascension through the minors and stellar performances on every level while there. Justin
Upton brings 20/20 power/speed to the table right away, and at just 19 years of age, could develop 30+ home run power as
he matures. While we do not expect Alfonso Soriano type numbers right off the bat (pardon the pun), we expect Upton to
contend for NL Fantasy Rookie of the Year and post juicy numbers across the board in his first full season.
28. Rick Ankiel
Can you win two Rookie of the Year awards – one as a pitcher and one as a batter? Not likely, but Ankiel did something few
expected him to do – he stuck at the major league level after a mid-season call to replace the ailing Jim Edmonds by St.
Louis brass. Ankiel has legitimate power and, while there are no batting titles in the foreseeable future, he could post 30
homers as early as 2008. Expect less but hope for more from this modern day Babe Ruth-lite.
29. Felix Pie
Felix forfeited the starting CF job last season after it was handed to him on a silver platter. Batting an anemic .215 in his
first crack at the Bigs, Pie is quickly losing his status as a blue chip prospect. He did swipe 8 bags in 177 at bats, and lit up
minor league pitching upon demotion, but sabremetrically-inclined Sam Fuld will be scratching at Pie’s heels if he comes out
of the gate slowly in 2008, or if he gives away the center field job, yet again. Many scouts feel that Felix Pie has all of the
tools of a Mike Cameron in CF, but whether that will translate into a productive fantasy season in ’08 remains to be seen.
Expect streakiness and ignore trade and demotion rumors, and exercise optimism when taking this burgeoning star.
30. Geoff Jenkins
Jenkins has gone from a slugger capable of 30+ homers, to a platoon player and Milwaukee outcast. Batting .215 against
southpaws in 2007 didn’t strengthen Geoff’s case for a full time job, but fantasy GM’s can take comfort in the fact that
Jenkins will be moving to Citizen’s Bank Park in 2008, arguably the most hitter friendly park in the NL east. Fantasy
managers can also breathe easier knowing that as the lefty half of a platoon featuring only Jason Werth, that Jenkins
should see his share of at bats, and may see a resultant rise in average without those whiffs against lefties.
31. Bill Hall
If the Brewers install Billy Hall at pitcher this season, then he can edit his positional resume to include, “pretty much the
entire defensive field.” In all seriousness, Hall regressed significantly last season, and one wonders if the switch to center
field, where he looked like a fish out of water all season, didn’t play some role. The Brewers figure that a return to third
base, where Hall has hit .327 with 13 homers in career 257 at bats, is the way to remedy his ailing bat. Time will tell whether
a return to the infield will offensively recharge Bill Hall, but expect around 20 homers and 60+ RBI.
32. Dave Roberts
We are still astonished at Roberts’ ability to steal at age 35. In just 396 at bats during 2007, Dave Roberts swiped 31 bases
in 36 attempts. A healthy showing might result in a return to 40+ steals, even on a San Francisco offense devoid of their
anchor. Roberts has always played second fiddle to Juan Pierre in the NL stolen base race, but don’t undervalue him for
that reason. A strong second half of .291 and good off-season conditioning make Roberts a potential steal in 2008!
33. Corey Patterson
A move from Camden Yards to Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati cannot be viewed as a tremendous benefit to a batter,
but Patterson has another motivation to succeed in 2008. Few teams gave Corey a second glance among free agent
center fields that included notables such as Andruw Jones and Mike Cameron, and while Patterson may be a detriment on
an actual baseball team (with regard to OBP and defense) but is a boon to fantasy managers looking for steals and some
power on the cheap. Corey Patterson has done something few have taken notice of – he has decreased his whiffs for 4
straight seasons. Although in leagues of 4x4 or 5x5 format, this improvement may raise no eyebrows, it does point to
potentially overlooked development. At age 28, it’s hard to ignore the possibility of a return to 2004’s numbers, but it’s
harder to rely upon it. Draft with caution because Jay Bruce will be nipping at Patterson’s heels all season, but with a one
year contract and his career on the line, we expect Corey to play like a man inspired.
34. Lastings Milledge
Will Milledge join the lengthy list of Met outcasts who have found success elsewhere, or will Lastings finish last yet again?
Time will tell. The batting average could be ugly, but the power and speed are there. Unlike his days in New York, Milledge
will be handed a job from day one. With a starting job and a high ceiling, Lastings Milledge could be a solid fantasy
contributor as early as ’08. Expect 10-15 homers and 20+ steals as this budding outfield talent may make the Nationals
quickly forget about Ryan Church and Brian Schneider.
35. Ryan Church
As frustrated past Church owners, we have long felt that Ryan was owed a full-time job. Last season the Nationals all but
gave Church that job and he was less than impressive, posting only 15 homers (10 of which were hit while away), 70 RBI,
and batting .272. Remember, however, that Church was playing in spacious RFK Stadium, and still knocked 43 two-
baggers, indicating that upside is present. Whether starting or platooning, we expect 20+ homers from a healthy Ryan
Church, and another showing of a .270+ average.
36. Moises Alou
Alou is predictable. When he plays he plays well, but he doesn't play often enough. His injuries make him a risk, and we
say flat out don't take him until the $1 round in auctions. Otherwise you shouldn't be needing to take risks during your draft
or auction. Now if he is available as a free agent, and he's expected to play take him... you'll get a week or two of above
average production before he's injured and you drop him again.
Outfielders, outfielders, outfielders. It always feels like there is an endless supply of them until there aren't. Keep in mind
that once you get past the elite, the rest can be largely grouped together as equivalents and drafted accordingly. Get a
stud offensive threat early, then make sure you fill out your shallow positions, then pony up on a few reliable outfielders in
the middle rounds.
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