1. Albert Pujols
Better known as Prince Albert of Pujols. If you can identify another player as consistently outstanding since breaking into
the Bigs, speak now or forever hold your peace. Albert has not statistically hiccoughed since his call up. Battling injuries for
the fifth consecutive season yet reaching 30+ homers, 100+ RBI, and batting .314+ for the seventh consecutive season,
Pujols is the hallmark of consistency and is, when healthy, the best first baseman in the Majors. Electing not to have
surgery on his balky right elbow during the off-season, Albert Pujols will have a difficult time living up to expectations again
in 2008. Presuming he stays healthy, we expect similar production to last season, but a fantasy GM drafting or purchasing
Pujols must also be prepared for the possibility that he will go down with season-ending elbow surgery during 2008.
2. Prince Fielder
Prince isn’t even his nickname – it’s his given name. Scouting his swing and watching Fielder loft homer after homer during
2007, it’s easy to forget that Prince is only 23 years old. In his sophomore season in the Bigs, when we often expect
sluggers to take a step backward in their path to stardom, Fielder took a giant leap forward. Hitting 50 long-balls in 2008
and improving upon his rookie batting average and RBI totals makes Fielder a great pick entering 2008.
3. Ryan Howard
How many players can strike out 199 times in a single season but still post a superb final numerical line? Few. Other than
Adam Dunn, there are few threats to strike out 200 times while homering 40-50+ times in a single season. Ryan Howard is
an all or nothing offensive player. In fantasy baseball what that means is that he is normally on for you. Over the past two
years no one has hit more home runs in baseball.
4. Mark Teixeira
A Braves booster growing up, Mark Teixeira is in a contract year with Atlanta in 2008. In just over 200 at bats with his new
ball club, Tex hit 17 homers with 56 RBI and batted .317. What made Teixeira’s performance so surprising was his move
from a notoriously batter-friendly park in Texas to less-than-batter-friendly Turner Field. We expect a superb follow up
performance by Tex in 2008, which translates into a .300 average with 30+ homers and 100+ RBI.
5. Lance Berkman
One step forward and one step back. Berkman has been a veritable statistical rollercoaster ride at first base. Partly
because of injury, Lance Berkman will vacillate between 20+ and 40+ home runs. Generally speaking, Berkman is good for .
a .300 average, 30+ long-balls, and 100+ RBI. The 2008 season should be no exception and we expect with the addition of
Miguel Tejada and a full season of rookie phenom Hunter Pence, that Berkman will have better protection in the lineup.
6. Adrian Gonzalez
Acquired in inarguably one of the best trades in Padres history, San Diego quickly nailed down Gonzo for the next four
years in a long term deal. On the surface it appears that Adrian Gonzalez improved measurably last season. In reality
though, 2007 was a lateral move for Gonzo. He homered more often, but struck out more, walked proportionately less, and
batted 18 points lower with a lower on-base percentage and OPS. All signs point to a 2008 similar to 2007 but at a mere 25
years of age, the ceiling is high even in voluminous PETCO Park.
7. Carlos Delgado
It would be an understatement to say that 2007 was a career worst season for Delgado. Punctuated by a broken hand
during the decisive and final game of the season, Carlos had one of the most difficult years of his career. Long held as an
elite slugger, before 2007 the last time Carlos hit 25 or fewer homers was 1996. Injuries and at bats do not entirely explain
it away. After all, in 2007 Delgado had the most at bats in a single season he has had since 2003. We think Carlos Delgado
is at the age where regression is expected. While he will be playing for a contract in 2008, we offer a guardedly optimistic
assessment of what Delgado is capable of and would expect numbers closer to 2004 in 2008.
8. Adam LaRoche
It was a difficult 2007 for LaRoche, who struggled in his first season as a Pirate. With 21 homers and 88 RBI to go with a .
271 average, Adam LaRoche took a giant step backward, coming off of a huge 2006 season with Atlanta. With a strong
second half and having acclimated to life outside of Atlanta, we expect improvement from LaRoche in 2008. While 30
homers might be a stretch, somewhere between 2006 and 2007 is a reasonable expectation.
9. Todd Helton
Gone are the days of Todd Helton, perennial triple crown threat. If your league counts walks, on-base percentage, or OPS,
however, Helton may still be a desirable pick-up. In 4x4 or 5x5 league formats there are now numerous better options than
Todd Helton with higher ceilings (look no further than Jackson, Votto, and Loney).
10. Conor Jackson
Jackson almost played himself out of a job entirely in 2007. Conor was even given an audition in left field to keep his bat in
the lineup in order to accommodate both Chad Tracy and the hot-hitting newcomer Mark Reynolds. In reality, Conor
Jackson made strides in 2007 and improved upon his 2006 performance. With a rising slugging percentage and OPS and
the same power in fewer at-bats, we expect Jackson will hold down first base all season and post breakout numbers. It
would not be unreasonable to expect 20 home runs and 80+ RBI from this 26 year old rising star.
11. Joey Votto
OK. So it was only 84 at-bats and we cannot accurately prognosticate based on such a small sample size, but Joey Votto
was hot upon being called up and ultimately forced Scott Hatteberg into a reserve role. Able to play both left field and first
base, Votto looks like the real deal. He can put the ball out of the park to all fields and swipe a base. We expect that next
season, Votto may be ranked
12. James Loney
Loney broke onto the scene in 2007 batting .331 with 15 homers and 67 RBI in just 344 at bats. Thus far in his career,
James Loney has totaled 19 homers and 85 RBI in 446 at bats. Having never hit more than 11 homers in any minor league
season, it is hard to say whether Loney’s power will stick. Based on his freshman cup ‘o coffee and sophomore
breakthrough we think that Loney is a work in progress and has loads of potential. But we caution you not to expect 25-30
homers and 100+ RBI with a .330 average. Think a lesser version of the present-day Todd Helton.
13. Dmitri Young
Basically acting as an interim first baseman during Nick Johnson’s injury recovery, Young silenced detractors in 2007 with a
comeback season of .320, 13 homers, 74 RBI. Dmitri Young’s performance in 2007 was not a flash in the pan. He is entirely
capable of posting 20+ homers and 80+ RBI for Washington if he still has a job when Johnson returns. Therein lies the
question, though. Acquire him at your own risk but bear in mind that 13 homers in RFK might translate into 20 at Nationals
Stadium in 2008 – if Young can start hot and Johnson stays on the shelf.
14. Nick Johnson
Still just 29 years of age, how do you characterize perpetual comeback-player-of-the-year candidate Nick Johnson? Like
Bart Simpson, Johnson has earned the title “underachiever and proud of it” by falling short of expectations based upon his
considerable talent on numerous occasions. With Dmitri Young in the picture for the foreseeable future, Johnson will have
to stand out to push Young to the already crowded Nationals outfield. He certainly has the talent to crack the top five, much
less top ten, first basemen in the National League. But, practice caution when gambling on Johnson in 2008. He still gets
some sleeper points in NL only and extended category league formats where he remains a perpetual threat to break
through and realize expectations.
15. Rich Aurilia
Aurilia has more actual value than fantasy value, at this point. His positional versatility and major league resume help him
stick with the parent club, but neither are factors in the rotisserie world. At 37 years of age, Aurilia’s best years are behind
him and although he remains a sentimental favorite of fantasy enthusiasts. We cannot recommend Rich Aurilia as anything
more than a warm body to “not hurt you” on the active roster.
Like years past, first base is deep entering 2008, with a top six first baseman that are all-star caliber. While it is hard to lock
down a first baseman early in your draft or auction with such depth there, these players are difference-makers and cannot
be passed over.
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