First Basemen:
1. David Ortiz
If “Big Papi” qualifies at first base in your league format, snatch up this premium source of power, homers, and RBI at first
base. In leagues that penalize whiffs and reward walks, David’s value increases exponentially. Ortiz had what most
considered to be a disappointing season in 2007, difficult as that may be to stomach given he still notched 35 homers, 117
RBI, and batted a career-high .332.
2. Travis Hafner
After an MVP caliber 2006 season, Travis Hafner disappointed fantasy GMs with an abysmal 2007 campaign. After belting
a chunky 42 homers one year earlier, Hafner hit the reverse in 2007 – 24. He had a strong September and managed to
restore our collective faith in a comeback in 2008. Draft Travis Hafner expecting 30+ homers, 100+ RBI, and a .300+
batting average, and consider yourself fortunate if some undervalue him based upon one lone down season.
3. Justin Morneau
After an MVP 2006, Justin Morneau took a step backward in 2007. The problem was less injury-related and more one of
handling southpaws. During his MVP season, Justin managed a .315 average against southpaws, almost .100 points
higher than the subsequent year. It is hard to characterize a 31 homer, 111 RBI, .271 season as a let-down, but after his
breakthrough in ’06, expectations were high last year. Entering 2008, Morneau will again face considerable pressure to
produce as the franchise player of a team now devoid of former Minnesota mainstays Torii Hunter and Johan Santana. Will
he rise to the occasion or buckle under the pressure? We think Morneau will rise to the occasion. So, expect a season of
35+ homers, 100+ RBI, and a .280+ average.
4. Nick Swisher
Swisher was dealt to the Chicago White Sox in the 2008 off-season, and much is expected of this Oakland alumnus.
Superficially, 2007 looked like a power outage for Nick. But, upon closer examination, it is easy to discern that the drop in
home runs was off-set by the rise in two-baggers. With rising walk totals and dwindling whiffs, Swisher is a “coming-of-age”
story in the waiting. You should be a believer, because we expect a season of 30+ homers, 100+ RBI, and a .270+
average as Swisher continues his climb up the rankings chart.
5. Paul Konerko
With four straight seasons of declining home run totals, fans and fantasy enthusiasts are beginning to wonder whether
Konerko can break 30 homers in 2008. At age 31, we think that Paul Konerko still has more left in the tank, although his
best years may well be behind him. Do not expect 40 homers and a .310+ average, but you can certainly rely upon
numbers similar to 2007’s performance. Draft or buy-at-auction and get a consistent source of 30+ homers and a .270+
average.
6. Carlos Pena
Not only was Carlos Pena the retrospective Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year in 2007, but he finished second in the
AL in homers while posting a terrific 1.037 OPS. Perhaps the best value of all American League position players in ’07,
Pena will no longer be off the radar of fantasy GMs. His breakthrough season in 2007 will send him soaring in pre-
draft/auction rankings so Carlos Pena will be on everybody’s radar entering 2008. While we caution Pena-boosters to
expect significant drop-offs in power and batting average, we think his days as a second-fiddle at first are officially over.
Expect 25+ homers and 100+ RBI with a .260+ average.
7. Kevin Youkilis
Cherished by Moneyballers, Youkilis took another step forward in 2007, making strides in home runs and batting average.
Kevin is not a credible 30 home run threat yet, but he is certainly capable of pounding 20 homers and batting .300. His
second half collapse should be no cause for concern as this 28 year old phenom is entering his offensive prime.
8. Carlos Guillen
With the acquisition of Edgar Renteria to bolster their defense up the middle, Detroit effectively relegated Carlos Guillen to
first base. With Gary Sheffield entrenched as the team’s DH and the outfield rich in athletic talent, the Tigers did the only
thing they could to keep his valuable bat in the lineup. While it is hard to predict how the defensive shift will impact Carlos’
performance at the plate, Guillen has proven a potential source of 20 homers, 80-100 RBI, and a .300 average. In most
league formats, his multi-positional versatility and offensive contribution will make Guillen a nice pick-up entering ’08.
9. Richie Sexson
One atrocious, and we mean, abysmal 2007 and it is easy to forget that Richie Sexson was previously a reliable source of
30+ homers with a tolerable .250+ average. The departure of Ben Broussard means that the starting job at first base is
Sexson’s to lose. We think that the 33 year old Sexson is certainly in rapid decline, but that his .205 average is well below
2008’s expected figure. If he’s healthy, expect 30+ homers, 100+ RBI, and a passable .240+ average.
10. Lyle Overbay
Do not be fooled. At age 30, Overbay still has a lot left in the tank. An injury sapped his playing time and power during
2007. Although Lyle never became the 30+ home run slugger Arizona had quietly hoped, Overbay did muster two
significant seasons as a Blue Jay before ’07’s flop. Expect 17+ homers and a .270+ average at a bargain basement price
tag.
11. Ryan Garko
We always knew that Ryan Garko had power, but on a team with Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez, few thought that Ryan
Garko would get a fair shake at first base. When he was handed playing time, all Garko did was impress to the tune of 21
long-balls and a .289 average. We are cautious in advising Ryan Garko based on one lone season of major league
production, and even more unsold on his potential to eclipse 30 homers. Expect fewer homers in more at bats in 2008 with
a decline in batting average. Garko’s good, but not good enough to break the top ten first basemen yet.
12. Matt Stairs
Born to DH, Stairs has tempted comparisons to John Kruk throughout his career. In fact, Matt Stairs may just be the least
athletic athlete left in the game of baseball. That has never stopped Stairs from making the most of his limited playing time
over the years, and 2007 was no exception as Stairs knocked 21 homers and 64 RBI in 357 at bats with Toronto. The
release of Reed Johnson will clear the way for Stairs to finally start in left field at the age of 40 for the Jays. If healthy, and
if he can pile up the at bats, the upside to this born-again outfielder is big.
13. Casey Kotchman
Anaheim is finally dedicated to giving Casey Kotchman a shot at first base entering 2008. In 443 at bats during 2007,
Kotchman hit 11 homers, 37 doubles, and drove in 68 RBI with a .296 average. His improving rate of walks to strikeouts
(now an impressive 53:43) and lofty total of two-baggers gives fantasy GMs a glimpse into the potential future for this rising
star first baseman. Expect a .290+ average, 15+ homers, and 75+ RBI in ’08.
14. Dan Johnson
After a solid showing during his 2005 rookie season, Dan Johnson has disappointed and appears out of options entering
2008. He will either succeed as the Oakland A’s first baseman/DH, or be supplanted by up-and-comer Daric Barton.
Johnson’s 2007 season was punctuated by an absolutely abysmal second half that watered down his .260 pre-break
average to a thoroughly uninspiring .236 by season’s end. The power is still there, as DJ belted 18 homers in 416 at bats
with 20 doubles, and an expectedly superb BB:K ratio bode well for an improvement across the board. Johnson may take a
leap of faith, but it’s a leap that may be worth 20+ homers and an average of .260+ for fantasy faithfuls.
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